The cryptocurrency market was relatively mixed during the Easter weekend, with volume remaining low. Bitcoin was stuck between $84,000 and $85,000, while Ethereum was hovering near its lowest point in months. This article provides a forecast for some of the top-performing coins like JasmyCoin (JASMY), Fartcoin, Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET), and Gala Games (GALA).

Jasmy price prediction

JASMY price chart | TradingView

JasmyCoin is a top cryptocurrency often seen as Japan’s Bitcoin. It is a mid-cap token that is popular among traders. The Jasmy price bottomed at $0.00826 this month and has slowly made a comeback to the current $0.01538.

The rebound happened after the token formed a falling wedge pattern, a highly popular bullish sign in technical analysis. This pattern comprises of two descending and converging trendlines, with a comeback happening when they near their confluence.

Jasmy price has moved slightly above the 50-day moving average, and is nearing the key resistance point at $0.01615, the lowest swing in November this year. 

Therefore, the coin has likely bottomed, and will continue rising, with the next point to watch being at $0.020, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point. A break above that level will signal more gains to the psychological point at $0.25. However, a drop below $0.013 will invalidate the bullish sign.

Fartcoin price analysis

FARTCOIN chart by TradingView

Fartcoin has emerged as one of the most popular Solana meme coins in the crypto market. After bottoming at $0.1940 in February, the token rebounded to $0.8530. Fartcoin price has remained above the 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed upwards. 

This rebound happened after the token formed a cup and handle pattern, comprising of a rounded bottom and some consolidation. The cup has a depth of approximately 70%, indicating that its primary target is $1.0722. This target is derived by measuring 70% from the cup’s upper side. It is also the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. 

Read more: Fartcoin price prediction: is this the best Solana meme coin to buy?

Gala price technical analysis

GALA chart by TradingView

Gala is one of the top gaming networks in the crypto industry. Some of the top games in its ecosystem are Town Star, Sweep it Poker, Champions Arena, and Treasure Tapper.

Gala price peaked at $0.072 in November as most cryptocurrencies surged. It has then pulled back, moving to its a low of $0.01190, close to its lowest level on record. 

Gala Games token has formed a falling wedge pattern whose two lines are about to converge. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have formed a bullish divergence pattern.

Therefore, the token will likely continue rising, with the initial target to watch being at $0.02620, the 23.6% retracement level. A drop below the support at $0.01120 will invalidate the bullish view.

FET price prediction

FET chart by TradingView

The FET token dropped to a low of $0.3585 earlier this month and has since bounced back to its current price of $0.5700. It has moved slightly above the 50-day moving average, while the RSI and the MACD have pointed upwards.

The next point to watch will be at $0.6970, which coincides with the lowest swing on August 5. This price was also the giant double-bottom point whose neckline was at $2.235. A break above that level will raise the possibility of it rising to the psychological point at $1.

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The S&P 500 index has declined significantly over the past few months, forming a death cross pattern for the first time since 2022. It ended the week at $5,282, down by 14.2% from its highest level this year. 

The S&P 500 index will be in focus next week as investors watch any new developments on trade. Also, it will react to the upcoming corporate earnings, which will provide more information about how companies did ahead of Trump’s tariffs.

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla’s stock price has crashed in the past few months. After peaking at $488 in January, the stock has declined by 50% to its current price of $240. It has shed billions of dollars in value in this period.

Analysts expect that Tesla will publish weak financial results on Tuesday as its deliveries in Europe and China tumbled. The average estimate is that Tesla’s revenues will be $21.54 billion, a 1.12% increase from the same period last year. 

For the year, analysts expect that Tesla’s revenues will be $106.9 billion, a 9.45% annual increase, its slowest rate in years. 

Alphabet (GOOG)

Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube, has also pulled back in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of $208 in January to $153. 

The stock has dropped in line with the performance of other Magnificent 7 companies. As I wrote recently, there are concerns that its business is being disrupted by AI bots like Grok and Claude.

Analysts still expect that its business continued doing well in the first quarter as its revenues rose by 10.7% to $89.18 billion. Its annual revenue forecast is $387 billion, which wlll then jump to $429 billion in 2026. The average Google stock forecast by analysts is $201, higher than the current $153. 

IBM (IBM)

IBM is another S&P 500 stock to watch next week as it publishes its numbers on Wednesday. These numbers will come as its stock remains 10.50% below its highest point this year.

IBM’s business has slowed as competition from other top companies in the tech industry, like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft has intensified. Also, IBM may lose some contracts with the US government, as Accenture and other consulting firms have done. A key bright spot for the company is that its artificial intelligence is growing modestly.

Analysts anticipate that IBM’s revenues will be $14.39 billion, a 0.39% decline from the same period last year. Its earnings per share will be $1.43, a drop from the $1.68 a year earlier. IBM has done better than expected in the past few quarters.

Boeing (BA)

Boeing stock price has crashed by about 40% from its highest level in 2023 as it moved from one crisis to another. It made headlines this year when Beijing instructed its companies to halt new orders and deliveries.

Therefore, Boeing’s earnings, which will come out on Thursday, will provide more information about its business. They will also provide more hints about how Trump’s tariffs will hit its business, and how its turnaround efforts are going on.

Other top S&P 500 stocks to watch

There are other top S&P 500 index companies to watch next week. For example, Intel will publish its financial results on Thursday, providing more information about its business as concerns remain. 

The other top companies to watch will be popular names like Philip Morris International, Thermo Fisher, Texas Instruments, NextEra Energy, Chipotle, PepsiCo, Verizon, and Lockheed Martin.

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Ethereum price has held steady in the past few weeks. ETH was trading at $1,615 on Sunday, a point it has remained for about two weeks. Its performance has been worse against other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Solana. The ETH/BTC pair moved to 0.018, its lowest level since 2019, while ETH/SOL has crashed to a record low.

Why Ethereum price has crashed

There are several reasons why Ethereum price has imploded in the past few years. First, there are signs that Wall Street investors are not enthusiastic about ETH ETFs as evidenced by the inflows metrics. Data shows that spot Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows in the last eight consecutive weeks.

All Ethereum ETFs have just $5.27 billion in assets, much lower than what the Grayscale Ethereum Trust had before the conversion. Blackrock’s ETHA has $1.87 billion in assets, while Grayscale’s ETHE and ETH have $1.85 billion and $721 million, respectively. The other large ETH ETFs are by Fidelity, Bitwise, and VanEck.

A possible reason for all this is that investors in these ETFs don’t receive any staking fee. As such, Ethereum fans prefer buying and staking ETH to avoid the ETF fee and make a monthly staking return.

Second, Ethereum Foundation, which oversees the network, has come under criticism in the past few months. It has dumped ETH tokens and gone through management issues. Just recently, the foundation named a new leadership team as it seeks to reposition the network for the future. 

Read more: Ethereum price prediction: short-term volatility amid long-term bullish signals

Layer-2 networks growth

Third, Ethereum continues to face significant competition from layer-2 networks on the network. Layer-2 are independent chains that run on top of Ethereum’s chain. They supercharge its performance by ensuring that it has superior transaction speeds and low costs. 

These chains have become highly popular in the crypto industry. For example, Base has attracted 496 developers, while the total value locked (TVL) has jumped to over $3.7 billion. Its total bridged assets are over $10.6 billion, while the stablecoin market cap is $4.1 billion. 

Arbitrum has become a top layer-2 network with over 795 DeFi applications, $2.6 billion in assets, and $10.5 billion in bridged assets. It has a stablecoin market cap of over $2.86 billion.

The risk for Ethereum is that these chains are capturing market share and taking fees that it should be taking. 

One implication of all this is that Ethereum is no longer the most profitable chain in the crypto industry. It has made just $235 million in fees this year, while Tether has made $1.5 billion so far. Justin Sun’s Tron has made over $992 million this year. 

Read more: Ethereum set for a major price comeback in 6 months and 1 year, should investors buy the dip? 

Ethereum price technical analysis

ETH price chart | Source: TradingView

Fundamentals suggest a further decline in the ETH price this year. To some extent, trend-following principles suggest that the price of Ethereum will continue falling as it remains below all moving averages.

On the positive side, however, is that Ethereum price has formed a falling wedge pattern, a popular bullish sign in technical analysis. The two lines of this pattern are nearing their confluence, signaling that a bullish breakout is about to happen. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at $2,140, up by 33% from the current level. 

A drop below the key support at $1,385, its lowest level this year, will invalidate the bullish view and point to further declines. 

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3M stock price has crashed in the past few weeks as investors assess the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on its business. After peaking at $155 earlier this year, it has bottomed to $130, down by 17% from its highest point this year. This article examines whether the MMM stock is a good investment ahead of the company’s earnings announcement on Tuesday. 

3M has faced challenges in the past few years

3M is a top industrial company that manufactures products used in several industries. Its top divisions are industries like safety and industrial, transportation and electronics, and consumer. 

3M is known for products like adhesives and tapes, safety glasses and eyewear, sandpaper, abrasives, and other sponges and pads. 

The company has faced numerous challenges in the past. For example, it was forced to pay $12.5 billion for manufacturing forever chemicals and $6 billion for selling faulty earplugs to the US military. Before that, Minnesota fined it $850 million for PFAS disposal in the state. 

3M has done a lot to remedy its business and boost its growth. It replaced its then CEO with William Brown, a highly experienced executive who helped to turn L3Harris around. 

Brown has adopted a cost-cutting approach in an effort to boost profitability. He has also pledged to focus on innovation, especially in his goal to end the reliance on forever chemicals.

At the same time, Brown has talked about the need for expanding its solutions since most of 3M products are no longer growing as fast.

The most significant corporate event that 3M made was spinning off its healthcare business into an independent firm known as Solventum, that is currently valued at over $11.6 billion. It also sold a stake in Combi Packaging Systems to SIAT Group.

The current main challenge is that the firm is facing potentially slow growth due to Donald Trump’s tariffs. These levies will affect its supply and demand side. Demand will be impacted as it is forced to boost prices of its products. In the supply side, the company will see higher costs.

Read more: 3M is a ‘growth stock’ after Q4 earnings, says Cramer: should you invest?

3M earnings ahead

The next catalyst for the 3M stock price is its upcoming financial results scheduled on Tuesday. These numbers will be the first ones after it delivered its short and medium-term forecasts. It hopes that its organic sales will outperform the macro in 2026 and 2027, and that its operating margin will get to 25% by 2027. It also hopes to have a 100% free cash flow conversion.

The most recent results showed that its sales rose by 2.1% YoY to $5.8 billion, while the EPS rose by 2% to 1.68. Its free cash flow rose to $1.3 billion. Altogether, 3M’s annual sales rose by 1.2% to $23.6 billion. 

The average analyst estimate is that 3M’s quarterly sales will be $5.73 billion, while its EPS will be $1.77 billion. Analysts expect that its annual revenue and EPS will be $23.9 billion and $7.76.

3M stock price analysis

The daily chart shows that the 3M share price peaked at $154.85, forming a triple-top chart pattern. It has dropped below the neckline at $141, its lowest swing on March 7. 

3M shares have also moved below the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (EMA). Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD indicators have all pointed downwards.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at $122.13, its lowest point this year. A drop below that level will point to more downside to the support at $110.

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The S&P 500 index has declined significantly over the past few months, forming a death cross pattern for the first time since 2022. It ended the week at $5,282, down by 14.2% from its highest level this year. 

The S&P 500 index will be in focus next week as investors watch any new developments on trade. Also, it will react to the upcoming corporate earnings, which will provide more information about how companies did ahead of Trump’s tariffs.

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla’s stock price has crashed in the past few months. After peaking at $488 in January, the stock has declined by 50% to its current price of $240. It has shed billions of dollars in value in this period.

Analysts expect that Tesla will publish weak financial results on Tuesday as its deliveries in Europe and China tumbled. The average estimate is that Tesla’s revenues will be $21.54 billion, a 1.12% increase from the same period last year. 

For the year, analysts expect that Tesla’s revenues will be $106.9 billion, a 9.45% annual increase, its slowest rate in years. 

Alphabet (GOOG)

Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube, has also pulled back in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of $208 in January to $153. 

The stock has dropped in line with the performance of other Magnificent 7 companies. As I wrote recently, there are concerns that its business is being disrupted by AI bots like Grok and Claude.

Analysts still expect that its business continued doing well in the first quarter as its revenues rose by 10.7% to $89.18 billion. Its annual revenue forecast is $387 billion, which wlll then jump to $429 billion in 2026. The average Google stock forecast by analysts is $201, higher than the current $153. 

IBM (IBM)

IBM is another S&P 500 stock to watch next week as it publishes its numbers on Wednesday. These numbers will come as its stock remains 10.50% below its highest point this year.

IBM’s business has slowed as competition from other top companies in the tech industry, like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft has intensified. Also, IBM may lose some contracts with the US government, as Accenture and other consulting firms have done. A key bright spot for the company is that its artificial intelligence is growing modestly.

Analysts anticipate that IBM’s revenues will be $14.39 billion, a 0.39% decline from the same period last year. Its earnings per share will be $1.43, a drop from the $1.68 a year earlier. IBM has done better than expected in the past few quarters.

Boeing (BA)

Boeing stock price has crashed by about 40% from its highest level in 2023 as it moved from one crisis to another. It made headlines this year when Beijing instructed its companies to halt new orders and deliveries.

Therefore, Boeing’s earnings, which will come out on Thursday, will provide more information about its business. They will also provide more hints about how Trump’s tariffs will hit its business, and how its turnaround efforts are going on.

Other top S&P 500 stocks to watch

There are other top S&P 500 index companies to watch next week. For example, Intel will publish its financial results on Thursday, providing more information about its business as concerns remain. 

The other top companies to watch will be popular names like Philip Morris International, Thermo Fisher, Texas Instruments, NextEra Energy, Chipotle, PepsiCo, Verizon, and Lockheed Martin.

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The S&P 500 index has declined significantly over the past few months, forming a death cross pattern for the first time since 2022. It ended the week at $5,282, down by 14.2% from its highest level this year. 

The S&P 500 index will be in focus next week as investors watch any new developments on trade. Also, it will react to the upcoming corporate earnings, which will provide more information about how companies did ahead of Trump’s tariffs.

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla’s stock price has crashed in the past few months. After peaking at $488 in January, the stock has declined by 50% to its current price of $240. It has shed billions of dollars in value in this period.

Analysts expect that Tesla will publish weak financial results on Tuesday as its deliveries in Europe and China tumbled. The average estimate is that Tesla’s revenues will be $21.54 billion, a 1.12% increase from the same period last year. 

For the year, analysts expect that Tesla’s revenues will be $106.9 billion, a 9.45% annual increase, its slowest rate in years. 

Alphabet (GOOG)

Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube, has also pulled back in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of $208 in January to $153. 

The stock has dropped in line with the performance of other Magnificent 7 companies. As I wrote recently, there are concerns that its business is being disrupted by AI bots like Grok and Claude.

Analysts still expect that its business continued doing well in the first quarter as its revenues rose by 10.7% to $89.18 billion. Its annual revenue forecast is $387 billion, which wlll then jump to $429 billion in 2026. The average Google stock forecast by analysts is $201, higher than the current $153. 

IBM (IBM)

IBM is another S&P 500 stock to watch next week as it publishes its numbers on Wednesday. These numbers will come as its stock remains 10.50% below its highest point this year.

IBM’s business has slowed as competition from other top companies in the tech industry, like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft has intensified. Also, IBM may lose some contracts with the US government, as Accenture and other consulting firms have done. A key bright spot for the company is that its artificial intelligence is growing modestly.

Analysts anticipate that IBM’s revenues will be $14.39 billion, a 0.39% decline from the same period last year. Its earnings per share will be $1.43, a drop from the $1.68 a year earlier. IBM has done better than expected in the past few quarters.

Boeing (BA)

Boeing stock price has crashed by about 40% from its highest level in 2023 as it moved from one crisis to another. It made headlines this year when Beijing instructed its companies to halt new orders and deliveries.

Therefore, Boeing’s earnings, which will come out on Thursday, will provide more information about its business. They will also provide more hints about how Trump’s tariffs will hit its business, and how its turnaround efforts are going on.

Other top S&P 500 stocks to watch

There are other top S&P 500 index companies to watch next week. For example, Intel will publish its financial results on Thursday, providing more information about its business as concerns remain. 

The other top companies to watch will be popular names like Philip Morris International, Thermo Fisher, Texas Instruments, NextEra Energy, Chipotle, PepsiCo, Verizon, and Lockheed Martin.

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The USD/RUB exchange rate continued to fall this week as traders monitored new developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war. It also dropped after media reports showed that China was increasing its purchases of Russian gas. It dropped to a low of 81, its lowest level since June 2023. 

Why Russian ruble is surging

The Russian ruble has experienced a strong surge following Donald Trump’s election win in the US. Trump campaigned on ending the war in Ukraine by striking a deal that would remove some of the sanctions.

Recently, however, there are signs that talks between the two sides have stalled. In a statement this week, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of the State, warned that Trump was considering walking away if he saw no progress. He said:

“If both sides are serious then we want to help, but if it’s not going to happen, then we’re just going to move on to other topics that are equally if not more important for the US.”

US abandoning Ukraine would likely be a victory for Russia as it would energize it to keep taking territory. Besides, Russia has managed to grow its economy despite the US and other Western countries’ sanctions.

The USD/RUB pair also crashed after reports that China had stopped buying Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) from the United States because of Trump’s trade war. The last Chinese ship with US LNG arrived at Fujian in February, while another one was redirected to Bangladesh.

Firms like Sinopec and PetroChina have largely avoided US cargo after Beijing announced a 15% tariff on US energy. As such, most of this gas will likely be acquired in Russia, a country that supplies a substantial amount of energy.

The USD/RUB exchange rate has also plummeted due to the ongoing decline in the US dollar index. The greenback has plunged from $110 in January to $99 today, and as predicted, there are odds that it will go down to $90.

USD/RUB technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the USD to RUB exchange rate has plunged, as we predicted. It has moved from a high of 113.67 to the current 81. Also, it has crashed below the key support level at 81.25, invalidating a double-bottom pattern that was forming. 

The pair has remained below all moving averages. It even formed a death cross in March this year. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it continues falling as bears target the key support at 74.8350, its lowest point in May 2023. A move above the key resistance at 87.10 will invalidate the bearish outlook. 

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The ServiceNow stock price has declined significantly over the past few months, dropping from a high of $1,196 in January to its current level of $772. It has dropped by over 35% from its highest level this year, meaning that it is now in a bear market. This article explains what to expect ahead of its financial results next week.

ServiceNow’s business is thriving

ServiceNow is one of the top technology companies in the United States. It provides a cloud-based platform that provides IT Service Management (ITSM) services. Its main business is to manage and automate workflows for IT services, customer services, and low-code development.

The company provides its services to thousands of companies in the US and other countries. Some of the other clients are firms like Accenture, Adidas, Amazon, Walmart, Apple, and Vodafone Group.

ServiceNow’s business has done well over time as the needs for its solutions rose. Its annual revenue has jumped from $4.5 billion in 2020 to over $10.98 billion in 2024. Also, the company’s profits have been rising in the past few years.

NOW earnings ahead

The next key catalyst for the ServiceNow stock price will be its financial results, which will come out next week. 

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts expect its results to show that its revenue rose by 18.5% to $3.09 billion. The average earnings-per-share estimate is expected to be $3.83, higher than the previous estimate of $3.41.

ServiceNow has a long history of beating analysts’ estimates. For example, its EPS was higher than estimates by $0.01 in the last earnings and by $0.27 a quarter earlier. 

While the initial earnings often move stocks, the forward estimate is usually a bigger catalyst. The average estimate by analysts is that its current quarter’s revenue will be $3.11 billion, while its annual revenue will be $13.02 billion. If these numbers are accurate, it means that its full-year figure will be 18.5%.

Valuation concerns remain

One of the top concerns about ServiceNow has always been its valuation. Data shows that its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 112.8, down from last year’s high of 179. 

Its forward P/E ratio stood at 95.7, much higher than the sector median of 23.2. The non-GAAP P/E ratio is 48.7, also higher than the median of 18.

These numbers are huge, especially when compared with other SaaS companies like Adobe, Microsoft, and Salesforce. Adobe has a forward P/E multiple of 21, while Microsoft and Salesforce have multiples of 28 and 22, respectively. 

For a SaaS company like ServiceNow, the best approach to value it is the rule-of-40 metric, which compares its growth and margins.

ServiceNow’s revenue growth is about 21%, while its net profit margin is 16%, giving it a rule-of-40 metric of 38%. That is a sign that the stock is a bit overvalued. However, adding its revenue growth and its FCF margin of 37% shows that it is not all that overvalued.

Read more: ServiceNow stock price analysis as a dangerous pattern forms

ServiceNow stock price analysis 

The daily chart shows that the NOW share price has crashed from a high of $1,196 in January to the current $722. It formed a double-top point at that point, which marked its turnaround. The stock has dropped below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since May 5.

ServiceNow stock price has also formed a death cross after the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossed each other. This is one of the most popular bearish crossover patterns.

Therefore, it will likely continue falling after earnings, with the initial target being at $680. A move above the ascending trendline will point to more gains.

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The Nikkei 225 index has bounced back this month as the US and Japan continued their negotiations on tariffs. After falling to a low of ¥30,800 on Trump’s Liberation Day, it has rebounded by over 12.4% to the current ¥34,610. It is hovering at the highest point since April 3.

This article provides a Nikkei 225 Index forecast as talks continue and the USD/JPY pair crashes. 

US and Japan trade talks

The Nikkei 225 index has bounced back in the past few weeks after Trump hinted that the US and Japan were talking on trade. In a statement on Wednesday, he posted a picture with the negotiating team. 

While the Japanese team left the US without a deal, there are chances that the two countries will likely reach a deal. 

Trump wants Japan to help the US narrow its trade deficit, which has continued to widen in the past few years. Data released on Thursday showed that Japan made a $63 billion surplus with the US in the fiscal year through March. 

Analysts believe that a Japanese deal will involve it buying more US goods, like energy and military equipment. Japan may also commit itself to spending more money on defense.

The rising hopes of a deal explain why the Nikkei 225 index has jumped in the past few weeks. A deal would be a good thing for Japanese companies that do a lot of business in the United States like Nissan, Toyota, and Honda. 

Bank of Japan likely to pause hikes

The Nikkei 225 index has also jumped as the ongoing trade war raises the probability that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will opt to maintain interest rates steady for long.

While inflation remains high, another interest rate hike would likely affect the economic growth. The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.6% in March, while the core figure moved from 3.0% to 3.2%.

Most of this inflation is being driven by food prices. Rice, a staple food in Japan, has seen its price jump at the fastest pace in over 50 years. 

Japan’s inflation growth is now higher than that of the United States, which narrowed to 2.4% in March. A Bloomberg analyst said:

“On one hand, inflation on the boil argues strongly for a reduction in stimulus. On the other, US tariffs are a risk to growth — a reason to hold. Our base case is for the central bank to stand pat at its next meeting and then hike in July.”

The Nikkei 225 index has also jumped as the Japanese yen has soared recently. Data shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has plunged to a low of 142.32, its lowest level since September last year. It has dropped by over 10% from its highest point this year.

The soaring Japanese yen against the US dollar will be an added cost to Japanese companies like Toyota and Nissan that are exporting to the United States. That’s because their products are now 10% more expensive in the US.

Nikkei 225 index analysis

The daily chart shows that the Nikkei 225 index has made a V-shaped recovery as it jumped from a low of ¥30,800. It has now soared to a high of ¥34,630, and is hovering at the highest swing since April 3.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed upwards in the past few months. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the index continues rising as bulls target the key resistance point at ¥36,000, the lowest swing in March, and up by 4% from the current level. 

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The US dollar index remains under pressure this week as the market focused on the latest issues between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell. The DXY index traded at $99.38 on Friday, a few points above the year-to-date low of $99. This article explores the potential consequences of Trump firing Powell, including the possibility of a US dollar crash.

Donald Trump wants Jerome Powell out

Trump has made it known that he is not a fan of Jay Powell, the Fed Chair he appointed in his first term.

In a statement on Thursday, he criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates even as the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its seventh cut during this cycle.

Furthermore, Trump stated that he had the authority to fire Powell and replace him. Other Trump officials have hinted that talks were underway to replace him.

In a speech this week, Powell maintained that he was not concerned about his job and that the Constitution protected him, and that it was a matter of law. He said:

“Generally speaking, Fed independence is very widely understood and supported in Washington, in Congress, where it really matters.”

Analysts believe that Trump has no authority to fire Powell and any other Fed Chair, unless of a serious cause. In this case, Trump lacks a genuine reason to implement his firing. 

Experts also believe that Trump’s decision would be overruled by the Supreme Court even with its conservative judges. 

Read more: Powell warns Trump’s steep tariffs may trigger higher inflation and slow US growth

What if Trump successfully fired Powell?

The US dollar index would likely continue its downward trend if Trump fired Powell and his decision is allowed to stand.

That’s because the Fed is one of the most important institutions in the United States, as it influences monetary policy. 

As such, that decision would lead to significant economic risks, as it would lower confidence among both local and international investors. 

There are several good examples of this internationally. The most notable example is Turkey, where President Erdogan amended the law, allowing him to appoint and dismiss central bank officials. 

Since then, he has fired officials who maintained a hawkish tone due to his aversion to higher interest rates. This explains why the Turkish lira has crashed to a record low over the years. 

If Trump is allowed to fire Powell for not cutting rates, he will also have the same power to fire the next Fed Chair if he also fails to do the same. 

Similarly, the next US president will have those same powers. And historically, presidents have always prefer low interest rates during their tenure. 

The US dollar index would also crash due to rising concerns about its safety as public debt surges, and following Trump’s initiation of his trade war. This explains why investors have continued to buy gold, pushing its price to a record high.

US dollar index technical analysis

DXY index chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the DXY index has been in a strong downtrend in the past few months. It crashed from a high of $110 in January to $99.45. 

The index has moved below the key support at $100, a psychological level that was also the lowest points in 2024. This price is also the neckline of the inverse cup and handle pattern, a popular continuation sign. 

The inverse C&H pattern has a depth of about 9.2%. Therefore, measuring this distance from the lower side of the cup means that it may plunge to $90. Trump’s firing of Powell, and replacing him with a dovish official would supercharge this decline.

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